Ask anyone in an Indian kitchen what climate change feels like, and the answer may be about tomatoes before temperatures.
Extreme weather is increasingly affecting food production and prices. A study by Zero Carbon Analytics tracked 28 food price spikes since 2022, each linked to extreme weather. According to the analysis, nearly all the spikes recorded this year were associated with record-breaking heat, drought or rainfall. Weather disruptions are no longer isolated events; they are becoming an increasingly important source of inflationary pressure.
India is experiencing the same challenge.
How weather disruptions affect food prices
In June, the India Meteorological Department confirmed the onset of El Niño and revised its monsoon forecast to 90% of normal. This matters because nearly half of India’s farmland depends on summer rainfall. By mid-September, the monsoon was 14.7% below normal, with rain-fed regions facing the greatest impact.
Tomatoes offer a clear example of how weather can affect household budgets. Heat during February and March reduced the summer crop, and by the end of June, retail tomato prices were 23% higher than a year earlier.
The impact extends beyond individual vegetables. Headline retail inflation stood at 4.82% in August, while food inflation was higher at 5.95%. Rural food inflation reached 6.13%, placing additional pressure on households that spend a substantial share of their budgets on essentials. Maize, arhar and soyabean prices were also above their levels a year earlier.
Why everyday foods matter most
Global research highlights how a relatively small number of food items can drive a significant share of food inflation. A separate UK analysis found that foods including butter, beef, milk, coffee and chocolate accounted for 30% to 40% of food inflation.
In India, the pressure is felt through everyday essentials such as tomatoes, onions, potatoes, pulses and milk. These foods are central to household diets, leaving families with limited flexibility when prices rise.
Climate-related food inflation is therefore not just an agricultural concern. It affects household purchasing power, food choices and the affordability of nutritious diets.
The hidden cost: Nutrition
Rising food prices can make healthy diets harder to afford, particularly for low-income households. When vegetables and pulses become more expensive, families may reduce their consumption of the very foods that support a balanced diet.
Research published in Nature Communications, analysing data from 1.27 million children across 44 developing countries, found that a 5% increase in real food prices was associated with a 9% higher risk of child wasting and a 14% higher risk of severe wasting.
These findings underline a broader concern: climate-related disruptions can affect more than food availability. They can also influence nutrition and health, with vulnerable households facing the greatest risks.
What should India watch next?
The September inflation figures are due on 12 October, followed by the kharif harvest. If rainfall deficits affect crop yields, the impact may first appear in wholesale market prices before reaching local grocery stores.
India cannot control El Niño, but it can strengthen its ability to manage weather-related disruptions. Better irrigation, improved storage and early planning can help reduce the impact on agricultural output and food prices.
Climate resilience must therefore extend beyond reducing emissions. It also requires preparing food systems, agricultural infrastructure and supply chains to withstand changing weather patterns.
| For a country where food is central to both household budgets and the inflation basket, climate change is no longer a distant environmental issue. It is increasingly a kitchen-budget issue, affecting what families pay, what they eat and how well they live. |
